I updated my tactical voting page yesterday. The methodology was slightly changed from before, notably I reweighted the contribution of the 2017 national election and the EP election and added more recent polling data. The end result was 11 Labour held seats (almost all in either South yorkshire or South wales) where the brexit party seems like the better choice than the conservative party.
Some people are suprised its not more than this but the reality is that even in most Labour seats the conservative performance tends to be better. As an example lets look at Sunderland central which is a Labour safe seat that voted Leave. In 2017 UKIP were in 4th place and around 30 points behind the conservatives, in 2015 UKIP were in 3rd place and around 4 points behind the conservatives. I have no doubt, especially in 2015, UKIP managed to attract some Labour voters that would never vote conservative but this was still not enough to eclipse the still minority conservative vote in the constituency.
Of course the counterargument is that the brexit party is much more proffesional and robust than UKIP. I agree the brexit party is vastly superior to the 2017 UKIP iteration but is it superior to the 2015 edition? The brexit party is actually around 3 points weaker than 2015 UKIP in the national polls and it needs to be 4 points stronger for me to recommend it in the case of Sunderland central. Not only is the brexit party somewhat weaker than 2015 UKIP, I'd argue that the Conservative party is somewhat more appealing, Boris is capable of cutting through to Labour voters in a way Theresa May was not. Factoring this in unless we see significant swings to the brexit party then it is likely I will continue to recommend conservative in all but the most anti conservative seats.
Incidentally you may be suprised that some of the seats on the list for the brexit party are far down the list on target seat projections. But keep in mind this is simply a measure of performance relative to the tory party, not performance generally. There are seats, such as Thurrock, which the brexit party has a chance of winning but to do so they would have to directly attack the Conservative vote which has a high risk of letting in a Labour remainer. The seats I have suggested are seats in which the brexit party controls the largest share of the leave vote and is likely to perform better than the conservative party and that it makes more sense for tory votes to switch as they are in the minority.
Of course a Leave alliance would be preferable to tactical voting lists, and I hope this happens. If it does both the brexit party and the conservatives can expect to win far more seats. Possibly 370+ in the case of the conservatives and 20+ in the case of the brexit party. As it is though I think the conservatives are more likely to win around 320 seats and the brexit party 0 seats.
Saturday 9 November 2019
Monday 4 November 2019
New tactical voting information
Based on recent constituency polling data and national polling results I've been able to fine tune my tactical voting model. The tactical voting model uses past election data to calculate a score for the relative performance of the Brexit party compared to the Conservative party. A score above 1 implies the brexit party controls a larger share of the Leave vote in that seat, a score below 1 implies the conservative party controls the greater share. It is therefore wise to vote Conservative in seats where tactical voting scores are below 1 and Brexit party where they are above 1. Note these are not target seats. In a hypothetical scenario where the brexit party gets 10% of the vote and the conservative party gets 5% of the vote, that would result in a tactical voting score of 2 however that, in of itself, does not mean the brexit party has a good chance of winning the seat; Labour might be on 30%. The tactical voting score only gives information about the Conservative/Brexit party choice.
The updated scores are as follows:
Kingston upon Hull north: 1.2
Kingston upon Hull East: 1.1
Knowsley: 1.1
Barnsley East: 1.0
Liverpool Walton: 1.0
Blaenau Gwent: 1.0
In these seats I recommend voting brexit party. Everywhere else I recommend voting Conservative.
The updated scores are as follows:
Kingston upon Hull north: 1.2
Kingston upon Hull East: 1.1
Knowsley: 1.1
Barnsley East: 1.0
Liverpool Walton: 1.0
Blaenau Gwent: 1.0
In these seats I recommend voting brexit party. Everywhere else I recommend voting Conservative.
Tuesday 29 October 2019
Where it *might* be better to vote for the Brexit party
Please note that this may be updated based on trends in national support for the brexit and conservative party. The main message here is if in doubt vote conservative. In 95%+ of cases it is probably better to vote conservative. However this article is about the handful of exceptions to this rule.
Firstly let's go over what type of seats they are. The seats where the brexit party has a chance of being more viable than the conservative party must fulfill all of the following criteria: be strongly euroskeptic (typically at least 65% Leave), be a traditional Labour heartland, ideologically very socially conservative with strong patriotic sentiment, very strong distrust of the conservative party and very few natural conservative voters. I should enphasise that not all traditional Labour, euroskeptic constituencies will be on this list. In most cases the Conservative party is still likely to be a better choice but these are the exceptions. I have come up with a TBP/CON tactical voting metric I will simply refer to the tactical voting score. A tactical voting score above 1 means it makes more sense to vote for the brexit party, whilst a vote below 1 means it makes sense to vote for the conservative party. Things may change based on the national share of the vote. However as it stands these are the seats that have a score above one:
Rotherham: 2.6
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough: 2.3
Barnsley Central: 2.1
Barnsley East: 2.1
Rhondda: 2.1
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: 1.8
Knowsley: 1.8
Kingston Upon Hull East: 1.7
Hartlepool: 1.6
Blaenau Gwent: 1.5
South Shields: 1.0
Kingston Upon Hull North: 1.0
IMPORTANT NOTE: These are NOT the constituencies the brexit party is most likely to win, many on these list are actually difficult to win. These are simply the constituencies where a brexit tactical voter should choose the brexit party over the conservative party. There are many other constituencies that the brexit party could be more likely to win but crucially doing so would require attacking the conservative vote base and in doing so would raise the chance of a Remain MP being elected. If there is to be no conservative/brexit party alliance then its key the brexit party vote hurts the Remain side (Labour/Lib dems/e.c.t.).
Firstly let's go over what type of seats they are. The seats where the brexit party has a chance of being more viable than the conservative party must fulfill all of the following criteria: be strongly euroskeptic (typically at least 65% Leave), be a traditional Labour heartland, ideologically very socially conservative with strong patriotic sentiment, very strong distrust of the conservative party and very few natural conservative voters. I should enphasise that not all traditional Labour, euroskeptic constituencies will be on this list. In most cases the Conservative party is still likely to be a better choice but these are the exceptions. I have come up with a TBP/CON tactical voting metric I will simply refer to the tactical voting score. A tactical voting score above 1 means it makes more sense to vote for the brexit party, whilst a vote below 1 means it makes sense to vote for the conservative party. Things may change based on the national share of the vote. However as it stands these are the seats that have a score above one:
Rotherham: 2.6
Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough: 2.3
Barnsley Central: 2.1
Barnsley East: 2.1
Rhondda: 2.1
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney: 1.8
Knowsley: 1.8
Kingston Upon Hull East: 1.7
Hartlepool: 1.6
Blaenau Gwent: 1.5
South Shields: 1.0
Kingston Upon Hull North: 1.0
IMPORTANT NOTE: These are NOT the constituencies the brexit party is most likely to win, many on these list are actually difficult to win. These are simply the constituencies where a brexit tactical voter should choose the brexit party over the conservative party. There are many other constituencies that the brexit party could be more likely to win but crucially doing so would require attacking the conservative vote base and in doing so would raise the chance of a Remain MP being elected. If there is to be no conservative/brexit party alliance then its key the brexit party vote hurts the Remain side (Labour/Lib dems/e.c.t.).
Saturday 26 October 2019
Why, in most cases, you should vote Conservative - The need for pragmatism
This is an appeal to the 10-15% of the population who strongly believe in brexit and who also probably more closely identify with the brexit party than with the conservative party. I recognize why the brexit party is an attractive choice, they offer a clean brexit which maximises the advantages expouned on during the 2016 referendum campaign. They also likely appeal more to people who traditionally vote Labour but also want to leave the EU.
In most cases (not all - the purpose of this blog is to also go over some of these exceptions so we can vote tactically) however, voting for the Brexit party is almost guaranteed to make brexit less likely due to splitting the vote and allowing a Labour/Lib dem remain alliance to get into power.
Some would argue that they don't care. Boris's deal is only 'brexit in name only', we might aswell risk voting for a real brexit because its Remain either way anyway. This isn't quite true. While Boris's deal is perhaps not ideal the most important thing to understand is that it puts us on the path towards that ideal.
Once we are out of the EU, we arn't rejoining. The transition period under a majority conservative government would be a negotiation between only two parties. There would be no need to appease the Remain side so inevitably we will end up with something much better than implied by the political declaration as it stands. And keep in mind, and regardless of whether the transition period is extended, we can still leave without a deal if it is not satisfactory to us. Again remember, the conservative party was fighting a war on two fronts; the EU and the UK parliment (that wants to remain).
The point is once we have left there are many ways we can gradually but surely begin to more fully decouple ourselves from the EU and EU law. It may not happen immediately like the brexit party would promise but I'd take leaving the EU this year and a gradually hardening brexit over the years to come than letting the perfect be the enemy of the good and leaving with nothing at all.
We have won the argument, and we are leaving the EU. It is not worth gambling everything we have gained for the promise of something that is simply unachivable to get in a country that divides almost 50:50 for Leave and Remain. And like I say, we can still get there once we are outside of the EU many things become possible. We do not need a perfect WA and we definitely don't need a perfect PD.
And please, please, please consider the alternative. If the brexit vote splits and Jeremy Corbyn becomes prime minister of a minority government propped up by the Lib dems and the SNP they will cancel brexit. Perhaps they will simply revoke A50, perhaps they will rig a 2nd referendum with votes for 16 year olds, but let me make this one guarantee: If Labour/Libs wins the election we will never leave even decades from now. Consider increased European integration, pressure to join the Euro, participation in a European millitary against an imperfect brexit which at the absolute least stops further damage.
The next election will decide our future. We can either Leave or we can Remain. And the brexit party poses a significant risk in splitting our vote and stopping brexit. As I say, there may be some exceptions, and future posts will go over some constituencies where it may be wiser to vote for other parties. My position is that Brexit should be the priority and we should vote for whichever Leave PPC is most likely to win.
Let's unite one last time and get this over the line!
In most cases (not all - the purpose of this blog is to also go over some of these exceptions so we can vote tactically) however, voting for the Brexit party is almost guaranteed to make brexit less likely due to splitting the vote and allowing a Labour/Lib dem remain alliance to get into power.
Some would argue that they don't care. Boris's deal is only 'brexit in name only', we might aswell risk voting for a real brexit because its Remain either way anyway. This isn't quite true. While Boris's deal is perhaps not ideal the most important thing to understand is that it puts us on the path towards that ideal.
Once we are out of the EU, we arn't rejoining. The transition period under a majority conservative government would be a negotiation between only two parties. There would be no need to appease the Remain side so inevitably we will end up with something much better than implied by the political declaration as it stands. And keep in mind, and regardless of whether the transition period is extended, we can still leave without a deal if it is not satisfactory to us. Again remember, the conservative party was fighting a war on two fronts; the EU and the UK parliment (that wants to remain).
The point is once we have left there are many ways we can gradually but surely begin to more fully decouple ourselves from the EU and EU law. It may not happen immediately like the brexit party would promise but I'd take leaving the EU this year and a gradually hardening brexit over the years to come than letting the perfect be the enemy of the good and leaving with nothing at all.
We have won the argument, and we are leaving the EU. It is not worth gambling everything we have gained for the promise of something that is simply unachivable to get in a country that divides almost 50:50 for Leave and Remain. And like I say, we can still get there once we are outside of the EU many things become possible. We do not need a perfect WA and we definitely don't need a perfect PD.
And please, please, please consider the alternative. If the brexit vote splits and Jeremy Corbyn becomes prime minister of a minority government propped up by the Lib dems and the SNP they will cancel brexit. Perhaps they will simply revoke A50, perhaps they will rig a 2nd referendum with votes for 16 year olds, but let me make this one guarantee: If Labour/Libs wins the election we will never leave even decades from now. Consider increased European integration, pressure to join the Euro, participation in a European millitary against an imperfect brexit which at the absolute least stops further damage.
The next election will decide our future. We can either Leave or we can Remain. And the brexit party poses a significant risk in splitting our vote and stopping brexit. As I say, there may be some exceptions, and future posts will go over some constituencies where it may be wiser to vote for other parties. My position is that Brexit should be the priority and we should vote for whichever Leave PPC is most likely to win.
Let's unite one last time and get this over the line!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)