Based on recent constituency polling data and national polling results I've been able to fine tune my tactical voting model. The tactical voting model uses past election data to calculate a score for the relative performance of the Brexit party compared to the Conservative party. A score above 1 implies the brexit party controls a larger share of the Leave vote in that seat, a score below 1 implies the conservative party controls the greater share. It is therefore wise to vote Conservative in seats where tactical voting scores are below 1 and Brexit party where they are above 1. Note these are not target seats. In a hypothetical scenario where the brexit party gets 10% of the vote and the conservative party gets 5% of the vote, that would result in a tactical voting score of 2 however that, in of itself, does not mean the brexit party has a good chance of winning the seat; Labour might be on 30%. The tactical voting score only gives information about the Conservative/Brexit party choice.
The updated scores are as follows:
Kingston upon Hull north: 1.2
Kingston upon Hull East: 1.1
Knowsley: 1.1
Barnsley East: 1.0
Liverpool Walton: 1.0
Blaenau Gwent: 1.0
In these seats I recommend voting brexit party. Everywhere else I recommend voting Conservative.
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